A smart meter that earns at least 30 billion a year and makes a fortune
From a business perspective, what kind of market is most worth investing in? Some people may think that it is a market with explosive growth, such as the virtual currency market, but it is extremely risky, and there is no physical object but a concept; or a market that can be expected in the future, such as smart cars, but a large amount of capital investment and fierce competition. A really good market is like liquor, with high profits (raw materials are only grains) and a large audience. High-end liquor has transcended the restrictions of alcoholic beverages and has become a status symbol (such as Feitian Moutai). In addition to liquor, there is another type of market that is similar to it, that is, meters.
The smart meter market is a magical market. According to statistics from the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, as of 2019, there are about 796 million domestic energy meters in total, and the useful life of smart meters is about 8-10 years, but there are industry insiders. It was revealed that the replacement will usually take place in about 5 years. In addition to electricity meters, it also includes water and steam meters.
From the perspective of the replacement market, there will be at least 80 million replacement demand for photoelectric meters each year, and for water meters, according to industry sources, the annual replacement demand reaches 20 million units. This also means that even if the steam meter is not counted, the annual meter replacement demand is more than 100 million units. In the future, as the demand for data collection of the Internet of Things increases, just looking at the electric meter, it is expected that more than 2 billion will be connected by 2030.
According to the cost of 300 yuan in the current market, the market size is at least 30 billion yuan. It may be dwarfed by the trillions and tens of trillions of industries such as electric vehicles and liquor, but the standard machine market has an obvious advantage, that is, stability.
For investors, there is only one thing that is most annoying, that is, uncertainty. In layman's terms, it is a risk. If there is such a business that can have a stable income every year, and only need to continue to invest, you can get rich returns, then this kind of business can be regarded as a stable profit without losing money.
This is due to the fact that the purchaser of smart meters is usually a state-owned enterprise. Taking electricity meters as an example, the bidding purchases are basically large enterprises such as State Grid and China Southern Power Grid. These companies can integrate the needs of the whole country for centralized procurement, and at the same time have certain guarantees in terms of orders and funds.
Then no one has discovered such a business-like stable rent collection. Of course, not, there are many players with strong capital who want to enter the smart metering market to get a share of the pie. But what is more interesting is that even though outside players want to enter the market, the players in the market do not want to expand. Instead, they stay at a certain scale and stop expanding outward.
On the one hand, of course, due to the particularity of the smart metering market, companies need to establish long-term contracts with the customers of power grid companies, which is subject to regional restrictions, and at the same time creates certain channel barriers for new entrants; on the other hand, it is Funding barriers, because smart meter procurement usually uses bidding, and large-scale bidding usually requires a longer credit period. According to people familiar with the matter, after smart meter procurement, the payment period of the accounting period reaches more than 9 months. The financial pressure on enterprises is enormous.
Even if a player with strong capital wants to enter the market, in addition to taking into account the related technologies of smart meters (computer technology, communication technology, automatic control technology, data processing, etc.), at the same time, in order to ensure the stability and reliability of smart meters, Take electricity meters as an example. The domestic market also has its own system of State Grid standards and China Southern Grid standards. Only after passing the certification of a professional testing organization can it be eligible for bidding.
Even if it has passed the technical level, in actual operation, it is necessary to build a complete market sales, service network, and professional after-sales team. If coupled with a long period of payment, it will bring about the capital chain of related companies. Huge impact.
At the same time, even if everything goes well and you enter the purchase list, if you only make upstream components, it will be more difficult once downstream products are involved.
Although there are already corresponding system standards in the market, in actual applications, the situation encountered is obviously more complicated, such as how many meters the signal transmission can reach, it is actually difficult to have a clear standard. Usually, the distance of communication transmission refers to an open and unobstructed area, but in urban areas, signal transmission needs to cross many layers of obstacles.
At this time, you will find that if you want to maintain a certain transmission distance, you must increase the transmission power consumption, but not every section of the terrain is extremely complicated. In open areas, excessive transmission power will cause waste. All need manufacturers to balance.
Undoubtedly, the smart metering market has stable benefits and low risks, and even in the future, as the penetration rate of smart meters increases, the market size will become larger and larger. However, the special market has also created a situation where players on the field are reluctant to easily expand the scale of production, and it is difficult for companies outside the field to enter. Even in order to enter the market, there have been alternative paths such as AI meter readers, but this is another. A story. All in all, the smart meter market looks beautiful, but it is difficult to enter.